We are into the final month of the transfer window, with some clubs sitting pretty having already made a handful of star signings while other fans look anxiously at their chairmen wondering when the transfers are happening.
The differing approaches to the transfer window is clear between both managers and clubs – while Jose Mourinho has repeatedly made clear he needs players before pre-season, Pep Guardiola demands the transfer window ends before the season starts and Daniel Levy is sitting with his hands in his pockets.
To help clubs decide what their approach to the transfer window should be, and whether it is better to get the business done early or late, bookmaker bwin has analysed the last five seasons to work out the optimum time to conduct transfer activity.
- The Premier League typically makes 66% of its signings by July 31st – suggesting plenty of signings are yet to be made
- The Premier League typically completes 12% of its signings on transfer deadline day (August 31st) – highlighting the rush to sign players at the end of the transfer window.
Players purchased in time for pre-season does indeed lead to a better year:
- 66% of clubs who spend 75% or more in August fail to improve on last seasons points tally – a warning to Tottenham
- 65% of clubs who spend 90% of their money before August won more points per game in their first 5 fixtures than their overall season
- 36% of clubs who spend 75% or more in August % win more points per game in their first 5 fixtures than their overall season.
- Don’t do it on deadline day – of the clubs that made 40% or more signings on deadline day, only 36.8% of those score more points in their first five matches.
- Manchester United in 2013/4 made 100% of their signings on deadline day and dropped 25 points that season.
- Spurs were the anomaly last season, with 60% of their signings made on deadline day, they had a 16 point increase.
If Guardiola got what he wanted and the transfer window ended before the seasons starts:
- Tottenham (47%), West Brom (42%), Everton (41%), Chelsea (40%), Manchester City (34%) and Man Utd (33%) all typically purchase players after the season has started
- 7 of the 10 biggest transfers completed after the season has started involved Premier League clubs – Gareth Bale, Di Maria, De Bruyne, Martial, Ozil, Otamendi and Mustafi.